Table 1

List of assumptions made to tune the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model

Assumptions group	Specific parameter	Value	Additional notes	References
R₀	C	12,5	Average rate of contact between susceptible and infected individuals	6
	τ	2,68%	Probability of infection given contact between a susceptible and infected individual
	d	7	Duration of infectiousness
Hospitalisation details	Length of stay of hospitalised non-ICU patients	8		7 8
	Length of stay of hospitalised ICU patients	16
	Length of stay in ICU	10
Clinical features	% of ventilated ICU patients	70%		9
	% of intubated ICU patients	50%		9
	% of shock ICU patients	35%		10
	Average days until hospitalisation	6		11
	% of mild and moderate cases	80%		6
	Hospitalisation rate	Inferred	Depending on the population’s age group and the corresponding risk of hospitalisation according to Imperial College data	8
	% hospitalised in ICU	Inferred	Depending on the population’s age group and the corresponding risk of critical care need according to Imperial College data	8
Testing	% mild/moderate cases detected by test	10%	Percentage of infected individuals with mild or moderate symptoms that will be detected by testing	6 12
Non-pharmaceutical interventions	Min R_t with 100% mask compliance	0.40	Minimum R_t value achieved with all the population wearing masks	5
	Mask spread reduction	0.80	% reduction of infectious spread by those infected wearing masks
	Mask protection level	0.40	% protection of those susceptible wearing masks
	Min R_t with complete shelter in place	0.30	Minimum R_t value achieved with all the population sheltering in place
	Susceptible shelter in place efficacy	0.70	Proportion of susceptible who will actually shelter in place
	Infected shelter in place efficacy	0.90	Proportion of infected who will actually shelter in place
	Closure NPI min R_t	0.60	Minimum R_t value achieved with the closure of all the activities, not taking into account masks and sheltering in place
	Schools and universities (R_t impact)	0,2	Maximum contribution provided by the closure of each specific activity (100% compliance) on the Rt value
	Large events (Rt impact)	0.04
	Bars/restaurants (Rt impact)	0.18
	Offices and factories (Rt impact)	0.13
	House of worship (Rt impact)	0.04
	Personal care (Rt impact)	0.06
	Non-essential retail (Rt impact)	0.15
	Essential retail (Rt impact)	0.13
	Entertainment (Rt impact)	0.04
	Outdoor recreation (Rt impact)	0.03
	Lag time before NPIs impact the Rt (days), suggested values 14–21	21	Delay between the date of NPI implementation and the date of their observable maximum impact on the Rt value	13

NPI, non-pharmaceutical intervention; R_t, R effective.